Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$36.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 21 top traders (33%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$31.1K

Total Shares31,135

Combined PnL+$5.41

Under14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares18,990

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$30.0K	$30.0K	+$15	98% 3223-82 (3305)
RN1CTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$5.8K	$4.2K	$-1.6K	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.5	98% 12939-204 (13143)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$982.09	$732.48	-$249.61	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 53¢	$125.52	$119.6	-$5.92	53% 5577-4939 (10516)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$123.13	$109.34	-$13.8	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 29.1¢	$163.08	$106.94	-$56.14	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$54.06	$51.51	-$2.55	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$49.98	$49.49	-$0.49	51% 6489-6152 (12641)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$33.39	$31.82	-$1.57	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 95.2¢	$30.19	$31.39	+$1.2	67% 23273-11679 (34952)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 45.9¢	$17.72	$24.7	+$6.97	73% 1546-559 (2105)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 94¢	$28.2	$17.55	-$10.65	64% 1071-606 (1677)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 94¢	$18.8	$11.7	-$7.1	77% 3247-975 (4222)
eskilloCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$91	$6.5	-$84.5	42% 586-816 (1402)
bernardi22CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$1.11	$4.61	+$3.5	56% 1267-984 (2251)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.43	$3.91	-$0.52	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 70¢	$7.35	$3.36	-$3.99	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 52.3¢	$1.8K	$1.68	$-1.8K	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$3.58	$0.55	-$3.03	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$1.64	$0.26	-$1.38	47% 4525-5012 (9537)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$29,970

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$15

Record

98%

3223-82 (3305)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$5,808.09

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$1,004.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.5

Record

98%

12939-204 (13143)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$982.09

Value

$732.48

PnL

-$249.61

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$125.52

Value

$119.6

PnL

-$5.92

Record

53%

5577-4939 (10516)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$123.13

Value

$109.34

PnL

-$13.8

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$163.08

Value

$106.94

PnL

-$56.14

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.06

Value

$51.51

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.98

Value

$49.49

PnL

-$0.49

Record

51%

6489-6152 (12641)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.39

Value

$31.82

PnL

-$1.57

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$30.19

Value

$31.39

PnL

+$1.2

Record

67%

23273-11679 (34952)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$17.72

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$6.97

Record

73%

1546-559 (2105)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$28.2

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$10.65

Record

64%

1071-606 (1677)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$18.8

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$7.1

Record

77%

3247-975 (4222)

eskilloCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$84.5

Record

42%

586-816 (1402)

bernardi22CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.11

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$3.5

Record

56%

1267-984 (2251)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$4.43

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.52

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.35

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$3.99

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$1,760.69

Value

$1.68

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.58

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$3.03

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$1.38

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 21 top traders (33%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.