Exact Score: Le Havre AC 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.7K
-$9.95
97.1¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$1.77 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97¢ | $539.27 | $540.98 | +$1.71 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $19.44 | $12.6 | -$6.84 | 53% 719-639 (1358) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $10.01 | $10.35 | +$0.35 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $7.97 | $4.57 | -$3.39 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
Invested
$1,125.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$1.77
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$539.27
Value
$540.98
PnL
+$1.71
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$6.84
Record
53%
719-639 (1358)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.01
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$0.35
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$7.97
Value
$4.57
PnL
-$3.39
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.