Exact Score: Le Havre AC 0 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.9K
-$93.8
90.8¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 90¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
FO Forecastication2 | Noavg 92¢ | $364.32 | $249.48 | -$114.84 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $151.91 | $159.29 | +$7.38 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 97¢ | $119.63 | $122.71 | +$3.08 | 73% 1546-559 (2105) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4.35 | $20.11 | +$15.76 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $9.76 | $6.61 | -$3.15 | 49% 18995-19405 (38400) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2.05 | $0.01 | -$2.03 | 38% 3209-5230 (8439) |
RN1Invested
$1,311.3
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$364.32
Value
$249.48
PnL
-$114.84
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
Invested
$151.91
Value
$159.29
PnL
+$7.38
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$119.63
Value
$122.71
PnL
+$3.08
Record
73%
1546-559 (2105)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$20.11
PnL
+$15.76
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$9.76
Value
$6.61
PnL
-$3.15
Record
49%
18995-19405 (38400)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.03
Record
38%
3209-5230 (8439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.