Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$720.85

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 100¢

+78% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,856

Combined PnL+$828.55

No5 traders

Total Value$5.16

Total Shares759

Combined PnL-$107.7

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 55.1¢	$920.49	$1.4K	+$488.12	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 55¢	$378.04	$597	+$219	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 64.2¢	$390.18	$308.09	+$106.94	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 55¢	$205.7	$209.44	+$3.74	45% 670-828 (1498)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$87.33	$88.07	-$0.29	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$49.79	$49.79	+$0
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.9¢	$37.54	$38.28	-$0.29
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 55.3¢	$91.31	$83.74	-$7.57	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$25.98	$44.3	+$18.32	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 36.6¢	$29.17	$4.38	-$24.79	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$36.08	$0.41	-$35.67	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$30.13	$0.19	-$29.94	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$17.34	$0.1	-$17.24	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$0.14	$0.07	-$0.07	55% 7057-5659 (12716)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$920.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$488.12

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$378.04

Value

$597

PnL

+$219

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$390.18

Value

$308.09

PnL

+$106.94

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$205.7

Value

$209.44

PnL

+$3.74

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$87.33

Value

$88.07

PnL

-$0.29

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

Both legs:

Invested

$91.31

Value

$83.74

PnL

-$7.57

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.98

Value

$44.3

PnL

+$18.32

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$29.17

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$24.79

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$36.08

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$35.67

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$30.13

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$29.94

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$17.34

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$17.24

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.