Kuopion Palloseura vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 3.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 75¢ · $345 held · ended Oct 29

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$344.64

Combined PnL

$31.55

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 75¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$332.34

Total Shares443

Combined PnL+$36.47

Over1 trader

Total Value$12.3

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$4.92

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 67¢	$266.78	$298.5	+$31.72	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 61¢	$41.16	$17.42	+$3.52	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 69.4¢	$15.19	$16.42	+$1.23	50% 24694-24376 (49070)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$17.22	$12.3	-$4.92	49% 12407-12722 (25129)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$266.78

Value

$298.5

PnL

+$31.72

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$41.16

Value

$17.42

PnL

+$3.52

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$15.19

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

24694-24376 (49070)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.22

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$4.92

Record

49%

12407-12722 (25129)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.