Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kuopion Palloseura, while the market favors IF Gnistan (59%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Kuopion Palloseura (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kuopion Palloseura (100%) · Kuopion Palloseura at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Kuopion Palloseura
5
Kuopion Palloseura 100%
$2.4K
$99.51
40.3¢ → 41.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKuopion Palloseura at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors IF Gnistan 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Kuopion Palloseuraavg 40.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$46.8 | 50% 24686-24363 (49049) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Kuopion Palloseuraavg 40¢ | $867.09 | $910.45 | +$43.35 | 50% 2482-2470 (4952) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Kuopion Palloseuraavg 41¢ | $131.61 | $134.82 | +$3.21 | 49% 12395-12710 (25105) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kuopion Palloseuraavg 40¢ | $61.2 | $64.26 | +$3.06 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Kuopion Palloseuraavg 40.5¢ | $85.52 | $38.2 | +$3.08 | 58% 41218-29884 (71102) |
Invested
$1,199.7
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$46.8
Record
50%
24686-24363 (49049)
Invested
$867.09
Value
$910.45
PnL
+$43.35
Record
50%
2482-2470 (4952)
Invested
$131.61
Value
$134.82
PnL
+$3.21
Record
49%
12395-12710 (25105)
Invested
$61.2
Value
$64.26
PnL
+$3.06
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$85.52
Value
$38.2
PnL
+$3.08
Record
58%
41218-29884 (71102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.