Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kuopion Palloseura win on 2026-10-29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 16¢ · $84 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$84.07
-$53.42
31.2¢ → 15.5¢
-50% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $78.15 | $49.28 | -$28.87 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $36.37 | $18.89 | -$17.48 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.8¢ | $12.8 | $9.11 | -$3.69 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $9.77 | $6.55 | -$3.23 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.5¢ | $7.19 | $0.24 | -$0.15 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
Invested
$78.15
Value
$49.28
PnL
-$28.87
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$36.37
Value
$18.89
PnL
-$17.48
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$9.11
PnL
-$3.69
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$6.55
PnL
-$3.23
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.19
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.