Will IF Gnistan win on 2026-10-29?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.3K
$112.4
84.2¢ → 85.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 84¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$82.37 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$24.41 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 85¢ | $144.5 | $147.05 | +$2.55 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $69.72 | $70.97 | +$1.25 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $59.99 | $61.78 | +$1.79 | 63% 1100-656 (1756) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $16.9 | $17.1 | +$0.2 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $4.55 | $4.39 | -$0.16 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
RN1Invested
$2,767.51
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$82.37
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
Invested
$1,087.83
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$24.41
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$144.5
Value
$147.05
PnL
+$2.55
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
Invested
$69.72
Value
$70.97
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$59.99
Value
$61.78
PnL
+$1.79
Record
63%
1100-656 (1756)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.9
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.39
PnL
-$0.16
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.