Will Kuopion Palloseura vs. IF Gnistan end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 81¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.5K
$35.46
79.2¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 79¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$27.84 | 50% 2481-2470 (4951) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 79.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$5.48 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $90.4 | $90.97 | +$0.56 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $50.71 | $52.05 | +$1.33 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $23.5 | $23.75 | +$0.25 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
Invested
$2,199.13
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$27.84
Record
50%
2481-2470 (4951)
Invested
$1,092.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$5.48
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$90.4
Value
$90.97
PnL
+$0.56
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$50.71
Value
$52.05
PnL
+$1.33
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$23.5
Value
$23.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.