FC Inter Turku vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 5.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 71¢ · $97 held · ended Oct 29

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$96.8

Combined PnL

$28.87

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$90.75

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$27.01

Under1 trader

Total Value$6.05

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$1.87

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$73.78	$73.74	+$21.46	76% 3976-1256 (5232)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10.26	$13.46	+$3.2	49% 12407-12722 (25129)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$4.19	$6.05	+$1.87	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 24¢	$1.2	$3.54	+$2.34	59% 45116-31500 (76616)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$73.78

Value

$73.74

PnL

+$21.46

Record

76%

3976-1256 (5232)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$10.26

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$3.2

Record

49%

12407-12722 (25129)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.19

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$1.87

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$2.34

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.9%

70.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.