Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Inter Turku vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
1 arb excluded
$11.8K
$1.1K
72.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 73¢ | $7.5K | $8.7K | +$1.2K | 59% 45107-31485 (76592) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 71.6¢ | $2.8K | $1.7K | $-1.0K | 50% 24690-24365 (49055) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 71.6¢ | $2.2K | $1.3K | -$929.52 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 71¢ | $547.83 | $451.34 | -$96.49 | |
 RN1 | Overavg 77¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$178.31 | 54% 56041-48162 (104203) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $48.35 | $107.52 | +$59.17 | 49% 18827-19233 (38060) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $82 | $84.5 | +$2.5 | 58% 41225-29890 (71115) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $76.67 | $81.67 | +$5 | 50% 3386-3329 (6715) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 16.2¢ | $11.66 | $42.65 | +$30.99 | 52% 3699-3363 (7062) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $1.55 | -$3.75 | 50% 33062-32629 (65691) |
Invested
$7,492.56
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
59%
45107-31485 (76592)
Invested
$2,757.33
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
50%
24690-24365 (49055)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$1,238.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$178.31
Record
54%
56041-48162 (104203)
Invested
$48.35
Value
$107.52
PnL
+$59.17
Record
49%
18827-19233 (38060)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$82
Value
$84.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
41225-29890 (71115)
Invested
$76.67
Value
$81.67
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
3386-3329 (6715)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.66
Value
$42.65
PnL
+$30.99
Record
52%
3699-3363 (7062)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$3.75
Record
50%
33062-32629 (65691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.