Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Inter Turku vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 3.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 40¢ · $122 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$122.21
-$264.94
47.6¢ → 40¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 64.4¢ | $225.5 | $45 | -$147.5 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $31.76 | $31.76 | +$0 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $93.34 | $29.4 | -$63.94 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $69.55 | $16.05 | -$53.5 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$225.5
Value
$45
PnL
-$147.5
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$31.76
Value
$31.76
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
Invested
$93.34
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$63.94
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$69.55
Value
$16.05
PnL
-$53.5
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.