FC Inter Turku vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$7.04

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 56.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,211

Combined PnL+$25.22

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,479

Combined PnL-$18.18

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 54.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.15	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
us391CTR	Underavg 45¢	$796.21	$787.36	-$8.85	51% 1664-1610 (3274)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 45.1¢	$554.8	$547.86	-$6.94	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 54.1¢	$363.54	$373.11	+$9.56	50% 33056-32624 (65680)
SE sentrio	Overavg 55¢	$156.18	$156.58	+$0.4	50% 24874-24575 (49449)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 52¢	$149.76	$151.2	+$1.44	49% 12392-12709 (25101)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$90.45	$89.45	-$1	58% 28254-20836 (49090)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$90	$89	-$1	54% 4826-4064 (8890)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$35	$34.61	-$0.39	58% 5791-4246 (10037)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 55¢	$29.7	$29.97	+$0.27	52% 3684-3346 (7030)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 52¢	$156.01	$3.59	+$1.4	58% 41203-29875 (71078)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$1,063.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.15

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$796.21

Value

$787.36

PnL

-$8.85

Record

51%

1664-1610 (3274)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$554.8

Value

$547.86

PnL

-$6.94

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$363.54

Value

$373.11

PnL

+$9.56

Record

50%

33056-32624 (65680)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$156.18

Value

$156.58

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

24874-24575 (49449)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$149.76

Value

$151.2

PnL

+$1.44

Record

49%

12392-12709 (25101)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.45

Value

$89.45

PnL

-$1

Record

58%

28254-20836 (49090)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90

Value

$89

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

4826-4064 (8890)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$34.61

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

5791-4246 (10037)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

3684-3346 (7030)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$156.01

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

41203-29875 (71078)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.