Will Chinese Taipei win on 2026-11-11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$221.27
$2.01
93.8¢ → 94.7¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.1¢ | $171.77 | $172.87 | +$1.1 | 47% 147-167 (314) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $41.66 | $41.66 | +$0 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $4.73 | +$0.98 | — |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $2.07 | $2 | -$0.07 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.