Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Tahiti vs. Cook Islands: O/U 0.5
Resolved Over. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Under 67%
$158.71
-$121.24
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 80.6¢ | $132.4 | $107.9 | -$24.5 | 37% 996-1673 (2669) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 90.2¢ | $62.33 | $50.75 | -$11.58 | 48% 1079-1157 (2236) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Underavg 1¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 52% 23-21 (44) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Underavg 26.6¢ | $21.12 | — | -$21.12 | 53% 7024-6169 (13193) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Underavg 15.3¢ | $3.14 | — | -$3.14 | 24% 54-167 (221) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $14.38 | — | +$0.15 | 61% 1421-900 (2321) |
SU suntori | Overavg 76¢ | $399.9 | $0.05 | -$5.35 | 46% 2546-3015 (5561) |
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8 | Overavg 87.5¢ | $802.67 | $0.02 | -$54.7 | 48% 20-22 (42) |
Invested
$132.4
Value
$107.9
PnL
-$24.5
Record
37%
996-1673 (2669)
poshposh<$100Invested
$62.33
Value
$50.75
PnL
-$11.58
Record
48%
1079-1157 (2236)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
23-21 (44)
Invested
$21.12
Value
—
PnL
-$21.12
Record
53%
7024-6169 (13193)
Invested
$3.14
Value
—
PnL
-$3.14
Record
24%
54-167 (221)
Invested
$14.38
Value
—
PnL
+$0.15
Record
61%
1421-900 (2321)
Invested
$399.9
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$5.35
Record
46%
2546-3015 (5561)
Invested
$802.67
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$54.7
Record
48%
20-22 (42)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
topdogbigboi
Over — $107.9
poshposh
Over — $50.75
BlackMamba08
CTRUnder — $0
cigarettes
CTRUnder — $0
0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000
CTRUnder — $0
shiifoo
CTRUnder — $0
suntori
Over — $0.05
0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8
Over — $0.02