Will Jordan win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.9K
$65.46
95¢ → 98.9¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Noavg 94.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$71.1 | 99% 12715-101 (12816) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 97.1¢ | $330.29 | $336.26 | +$6.12 | 53% 23655-20823 (44478) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $30 | $16.5 | -$13.5 | 67% 544-267 (811) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.91 | $3.66 | +$1.75 | 51% 101-99 (200) |
Invested
$1,465.54
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$71.1
Record
99%
12715-101 (12816)
Invested
$330.29
Value
$336.26
PnL
+$6.12
Record
53%
23655-20823 (44478)
Invested
$30
Value
$16.5
PnL
-$13.5
Record
67%
544-267 (811)
Invested
$1.91
Value
$3.66
PnL
+$1.75
Record
51%
101-99 (200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.