Will Jordan vs. Indonesia end in a draw?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $567 held · ends Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$567.17

Combined PnL

$20.19

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 99.1¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$552.34

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$54.41

No3 traders

Total Value$14.83

Total Shares1,648

Combined PnL-$34.22

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

113h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 98.4¢	$373.36	$370	+$2.61	58% 56-41 (97)
dips.	Yesavg 99¢	$104	$103.06	+$0.12	44% 125-158 (283)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$27.59	$79.27	+$51.68	46% 178-209 (387)
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100	No	$13.17	$13.17	-$16.1	—
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Noavg 16.3¢	$18.75	$1.04	-$17.71	—
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 1.5¢	$1.04	$0.63	-$0.41	82% 146-32 (178)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$373.36

Value

$370

PnL

+$2.61

Record

58%

56-41 (97)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$104

Value

$103.06

PnL

+$0.12

Record

44%

125-158 (283)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.59

Value

$79.27

PnL

+$51.68

Record

46%

178-209 (387)

canupdatelateronCTR<$100

Invested

$13.17

Value

$13.17

PnL

-$16.1

Record

—

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Invested

$18.75

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$17.71

Record

—

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.41

Record

82%

146-32 (178)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

113h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.