Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Argentina vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime?
Resolved Yes. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Yes 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$139.16
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Yesavg 77.3¢ | $314.39 | $406.6 | +$92.21 | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $151.09 | $282.73 | +$131.64 | 37% 924-1557 (2481) |
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $133.4 | $202.76 | +$69.36 | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 31.5¢ | $235.42 | $98.28 | -$137.14 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31.5¢ | $165.64 | — | -$165.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 71¢ | $69.78 | $98.28 | +$28.5 | |
VE Venusian | Yesavg 79.5¢ | $118.7 | $149.28 | +$30.58 | 36% 890-1596 (2486) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Noavg 32.9¢ | $146.56 | — | -$146.56 | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $31.5 | — | -$31.5 | 53% 6885-6020 (12905) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 47% 860-963 (1823) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $1.04 | $0.01 | +$0.23 | 46% 2333-2789 (5122) |
Invested
$314.39
Value
$406.6
PnL
+$92.21
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
Invested
$151.09
Value
$282.73
PnL
+$131.64
Record
37%
924-1557 (2481)
Invested
$133.4
Value
$202.76
PnL
+$69.36
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
Invested
$235.42
Value
$98.28
PnL
-$137.14
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.7
Value
$149.28
PnL
+$30.58
Record
36%
890-1596 (2486)
Invested
$146.56
Value
—
PnL
-$146.56
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
Invested
$31.5
Value
—
PnL
-$31.5
Record
53%
6885-6020 (12905)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
47%
860-963 (1823)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.23
Record
46%
2333-2789 (5122)