Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.6K
$28.65
81.9¢ → 83¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mishipolis | Noavg 83¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 50% 4581-4518 (9099) |
 probability | Noavg 78.5¢ | $566.11 | $598.51 | +$32.4 | 42% 1368-1922 (3290) |
 poshposh | Noavg 83¢ | $530.16 | $530.16 | +$0 | 58% 10615-7587 (18202) |
RI Rin2xCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $11.5 | $24.75 | -$3.75 | 86% 2155-340 (2495) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.