Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$130.89

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 99.8¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$960.8

Total Shares998

Combined PnL+$113.74

Yes2 traders

Total Value$21.71

Total Shares1,098

Combined PnL+$17.15

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$23.26	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.7¢	$663.48	$640.33	-$23.15
poshposh	Noavg 83.5¢	$575.53	$689.23	+$113.7	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
OR OrwellFactory	Noavg 83.9¢	$191.29	$191.29	+$0	57% 352-262 (614)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.24	$80.28	+$0.04	52% 5046-4717 (9763)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.55	$17.76	+$14.21	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.01	$3.95	+$2.94	41% 1281-1829 (3110)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Invested

$2,521.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$23.26

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

Both legs:

No$1,857.9583.9¢-$0.11

Yes$663.4816.7¢-$23.15

poshposh

Invested

$575.53

Value

$689.23

PnL

+$113.7

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

OrwellFactory

Invested

$191.29

Value

$191.29

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

352-262 (614)

korda77<$100

Invested

$80.24

Value

$80.28

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

5046-4717 (9763)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$17.76

PnL

+$14.21

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$2.94

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.