Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$6.9K
$5.5K
92.3¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $15.43 | $3.8K | +$3.8K | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $82.71 | $1.4K | +$1.4K | 57% 271-203 (474) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $189.69 | $851.89 | +$662.2 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
PU purplegatto | Noavg 92.1¢ | $743.28 | $407.6 | -$335.67 | 50% 5953-6043 (11996) |
 probability | Noavg 89.9¢ | $296.72 | $295.36 | -$1.36 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $124.45 | $125.26 | +$0.81 | 52% 5046-4717 (9763) |
Invested
$15.43
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$3.8K
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$82.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
57%
271-203 (474)
Invested
$189.69
Value
$851.89
PnL
+$662.2
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$743.28
Value
$407.6
PnL
-$335.67
Record
50%
5953-6043 (11996)
probabilityInvested
$296.72
Value
$295.36
PnL
-$1.36
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$124.45
Value
$125.26
PnL
+$0.81
Record
52%
5046-4717 (9763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.