Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 99.9¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,200

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,602

Combined PnL+$300.44

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	+$341.51	65% 290-159 (449)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.3¢	$7.1K	$7.6K	+$452.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.5¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$110.51
MI mishipolis	Noavg 75.3¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	+$450.47	50% 4583-4522 (9105)
poshposh	Noavg 72.6¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$586.22	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
AC acorpCTR	Yesavg 42.2¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$69.82	49% 624-641 (1265)
FR fraagenCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$252.63	$543.71	+$291.08	45% 61-76 (137)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 23.4¢	$43.45	$348.51	+$90.51	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Yesavg 24.1¢	$113.54	$233.31	-$12.2	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
KO korda77	Noavg 72.8¢	$91.23	$125.2	+$33.97	52% 5046-4717 (9763)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$99.98	$98.69	-$1.29	58% 5897-4320 (10217)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$84.42	$88.63	+$4.21	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 88¢	$30.8	$34.97	+$4.17	45% 2069-2501 (4570)
RI Rin2xCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$12.8	$24.75	-$2.05	86% 2158-340 (2498)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Invested

$10,398.72

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$341.51

Record

65%

290-159 (449)

Both legs:

No$7,119.8466.3¢+$452.02

Yes$3,278.8830.5¢-$110.51

mishipolis

Invested

$3,284.22

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$450.47

Record

50%

4583-4522 (9105)

poshposh

Invested

$1,716.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$586.22

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

acorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,367.29

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$69.82

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

fraagenCTR

Yes

Invested

$252.63

Value

$543.71

PnL

+$291.08

Record

45%

61-76 (137)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$43.45

Value

$348.51

PnL

+$90.51

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

SunlineTickerCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.54

Value

$233.31

PnL

-$12.2

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

korda77

Invested

$91.23

Value

$125.2

PnL

+$33.97

Record

52%

5046-4717 (9763)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.98

Value

$98.69

PnL

-$1.29

Record

58%

5897-4320 (10217)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.42

Value

$88.63

PnL

+$4.21

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

poposub<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$34.97

PnL

+$4.17

Record

45%

2069-2501 (4570)

Rin2xCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.8

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$2.05

Record

86%

2158-340 (2498)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.