Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$218.43

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 66¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,014

Combined PnL+$14.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$270.34

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$203.88

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JE Jest55	Noavg 63.9¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$14.55	75% 1028-338 (1366)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$624.26	$618.93	-$13.32	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.4¢	$458.28	$462.3	+$0.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.6¢	$165.98	$156.63	-$13.89
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$28.24	$253.09	+$205.13	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
RI Rin2xCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$18	$17.25	-$1.25	86% 2157-340 (2497)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 66¢	$10.02	$10.02	+$0	76% 11357-3525 (14882)

Jest55

Invested

$1,531.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.55

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Invested

$624.26

Value

$618.93

PnL

-$13.32

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

Both legs:

No$458.2866.4¢+$0.57

Yes$165.9836.6¢-$13.89

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$28.24

Value

$253.09

PnL

+$205.13

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Rin2xCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

86%

2157-340 (2497)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11357-3525 (14882)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.