Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.9K
-$48.29
64.5¢ → 62.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR OrwellFactory | Noavg 65.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$59.06 | 57% 351-262 (613) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 63.9¢ | $652.13 | $630 | +$15 | 75% 1016-338 (1354) |
 probability | Noavg 62.8¢ | $607.83 | $600.54 | -$7.29 | 42% 1365-1922 (3287) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $88.56 | $91.02 | +$2.46 | 62% 4161-2553 (6714) |
RI Rin2xCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $17.4 | $18 | +$0.6 | 86% 2131-337 (2468) |
Invested
$1,604.4
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$59.06
Record
57%
351-262 (613)
Invested
$652.13
Value
$630
PnL
+$15
Record
75%
1016-338 (1354)
probabilityInvested
$607.83
Value
$600.54
PnL
-$7.29
Record
42%
1365-1922 (3287)
Invested
$88.56
Value
$91.02
PnL
+$2.46
Record
62%
4161-2553 (6714)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.6
Record
86%
2131-337 (2468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.