Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$855.81
$491.6
78.9¢ → 99.5¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mishipolis | Noavg 80.9¢ | $1.8K | $632.18 | +$363.78 | 50% 4552-4496 (9048) |
 probability | Noavg 73¢ | $138.66 | $189.86 | +$51.2 | 42% 1365-1922 (3287) |
DR Dreamwire | Noavg 76¢ | $254.78 | $27.69 | +$80.09 | 83% 2630-528 (3158) |
RI Rin2xCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $8.1 | $6 | -$2.1 | 86% 2134-338 (2472) |
HO HongweiqianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $0.08 | -$1.38 | 49% 244-256 (500) |
Invested
$1,784.59
Value
$632.18
PnL
+$363.78
Record
50%
4552-4496 (9048)
probabilityInvested
$138.66
Value
$189.86
PnL
+$51.2
Record
42%
1365-1922 (3287)
Invested
$254.78
Value
$27.69
PnL
+$80.09
Record
83%
2630-528 (3158)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$6
PnL
-$2.1
Record
86%
2134-338 (2472)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$1.38
Record
49%
244-256 (500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.