Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 0.6¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 43%
$5.1K
$219.71
51.1¢ → 0.6¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL OldZzCTR | Noavg 53.9¢ | $3.4K | $2.1K | -$330.96 | 46% 103-119 (222) |
 poshposh | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $610.94 | $1.1K | +$470.35 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Noavg 46.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$12.39 | 53% 4589-4006 (8595) |
MI mishipolis | Yesavg 47¢ | $546.3 | $599.89 | +$53.59 | 50% 4583-4522 (9105) |
 probabilityCTR | Noavg 42.8¢ | $127.69 | $141.87 | +$14.18 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
01 01258787xy48487484545122 | Yesavg 70¢ | $81.35 | $105.6 | +$24.24 | 65% 290-159 (449) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Yesavg 75.2¢ | $89.73 | $65.65 | -$24.08 | 50% 5953-6043 (11996) |
Invested
$3,445.35
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$330.96
Record
46%
103-119 (222)
poshposhInvested
$610.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$470.35
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$1,013.36
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$12.39
Record
53%
4589-4006 (8595)
Invested
$546.3
Value
$599.89
PnL
+$53.59
Record
50%
4583-4522 (9105)
probabilityCTRInvested
$127.69
Value
$141.87
PnL
+$14.18
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$81.35
Value
$105.6
PnL
+$24.24
Record
65%
290-159 (449)
Invested
$89.73
Value
$65.65
PnL
-$24.08
Record
50%
5953-6043 (11996)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.