Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 84¢ · $666 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$665.85
-$44.74
74.7¢ → 83.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 74.7¢ | $478.21 | $531.1 | +$52.89 | 50% 391-397 (788) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 28.6¢ | $194.95 | $73.28 | -$64.64 | 42% 5206-7139 (12345) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.7¢ | $99.02 | $57.29 | -$33.47 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $4.18 | +$0.47 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$478.21
Value
$531.1
PnL
+$52.89
Record
50%
391-397 (788)
Invested
$194.95
Value
$73.28
PnL
-$64.64
Record
42%
5206-7139 (12345)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$99.02
Value
$57.29
PnL
-$33.47
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$0.47
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.