KK Crvena Zvezda vs. FC Bayern Munchen
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold KK Crvena Zvezda (83%) · KK Crvena Zvezda at 75¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
KK Crvena Zvezda
6
KK Crvena Zvezda 83%
$7.1K
$188.54
73.4¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidKK Crvena Zvezda at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 73.5¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$41.21 | 58% 41218-29884 (71102) |
QU QuentinChenCTR | FC Bayern Munchenavg 26.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$195.77 | 47% 314-356 (670) |
HO HomeRunHazard | KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 73¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$36.08 | 54% 17005-14250 (31255) |
SN SnakeBall | KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 74¢ | $436.18 | $425.69 | -$10.5 | 50% 33056-32626 (65682) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 74¢ | $36.26 | $34.79 | -$1.47 | 49% 12395-12710 (25105) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 74¢ | $9.62 | $9.23 | -$0.39 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,958.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$41.21
Record
58%
41218-29884 (71102)
Invested
$2,198.32
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$195.77
Record
47%
314-356 (670)
Invested
$1,316.93
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$36.08
Record
54%
17005-14250 (31255)
Invested
$436.18
Value
$425.69
PnL
-$10.5
Record
50%
33056-32626 (65682)
Invested
$36.26
Value
$34.79
PnL
-$1.47
Record
49%
12395-12710 (25105)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.