Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Fenerbahce, while the market favors Valencia (50%). 0 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Valencia vs. Fenerbahce
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (67%) · Fenerbahce at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Fenerbahce
3
Fenerbahce 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$22.63
51¢ → 50¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidFenerbahce at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Valencia 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuentinChen | Fenerbahceavg 51¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$21.96 | 46% 304-351 (655) |
 VeryLucky888 | Valenciaavg 48.6¢ | $2.7K | $411.25 | +$44.06 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Valenciaavg 49¢ | $92.46 | $93 | +$1.7 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
| └ Valencia leg | Valenciaavg 49¢ | $53.41 | $54.5 | +$1.09 | |
| └ Fenerbahce leg | Fenerbahceavg 50.7¢ | $39.05 | $38.5 | +$0.61 | |
 tradecraft<$100 | Fenerbahceavg 50¢ | $31.8 | $32.09 | +$0.53 | 52% 5820-5438 (11258) |
Invested
$1,120.08
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$21.96
Record
46%
304-351 (655)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,746.23
Value
$411.25
PnL
+$44.06
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$92.46
Value
$93
PnL
+$1.7
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
Both legs:
tradecraft<$100Invested
$31.8
Value
$32.09
PnL
+$0.53
Record
52%
5820-5438 (11258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.