Paris Basketball vs. Fenerbahce
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahce (60%) · Fenerbahce at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Fenerbahce
5
Fenerbahce 60%
$4.5K
$110.92
67.5¢ → 69¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidFenerbahce at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahce. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Fenerbahceavg 67.4¢ | $3.6K | $2.5K | +$81.23 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Fenerbahceavg 67¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$34.13 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Fenerbahceavg 69¢ | $552 | $552 | -$0 | 15% 145-839 (984) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Paris Basketballavg 31¢ | $263.5 | $259.25 | -$4.25 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Paris Basketballavg 32¢ | $6.16 | $5.97 | -$0.19 | 31% 385-855 (1240) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,625.35
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$81.23
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$1,143.31
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$34.13
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$552
Value
$552
PnL
-$0
Record
15%
145-839 (984)
Invested
$263.5
Value
$259.25
PnL
-$4.25
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$5.97
PnL
-$0.19
Record
31%
385-855 (1240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.