Panathinaikos vs. Olimpia Milano
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Panathinaikos (60%) · Panathinaikos at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Panathinaikos
5
Panathinaikos 60%
$1.9K
$47.17
84¢ → 86.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPanathinaikos at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Panathinaikos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AC acorp | Panathinaikosavg 86¢ | $838.5 | $867.75 | +$4.88 | 50% 610-620 (1230) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Panathinaikosavg 82¢ | $819.99 | $838.84 | +$42.41 | 47% 2366-2633 (4999) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Olimpia Milanoavg 13¢ | $148.82 | $148.83 | +$0.01 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Panathinaikosavg 85.2¢ | $12.17 | $12.71 | +$0.18 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Olimpia Milanoavg 14¢ | $8.68 | $8.06 | -$0.31 | 54% 2885-2471 (5356) |
Invested
$838.5
Value
$867.75
PnL
+$4.88
Record
50%
610-620 (1230)
Invested
$819.99
Value
$838.84
PnL
+$42.41
Record
47%
2366-2633 (4999)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$148.82
Value
$148.83
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.17
Value
$12.71
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$8.06
PnL
-$0.31
Record
54%
2885-2471 (5356)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.