Panathinaikos vs. Barcelona

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Panathinaikos (88%) · Panathinaikos at 83¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Panathinaikos83¢Barcelona17¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Panathinaikos

Consensus Traders

Panathinaikos 88%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$81.38

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 82.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPanathinaikos at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panathinaikos

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panathinaikos83%

Barcelona18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panathinaikos7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,343

Combined PnL+$81.69

Barcelona1 trader

Total Value$11.5

Total Shares62

Combined PnL-$0.31

Panathinaikos — 88%Barcelona — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Panathinaikos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPanathinaikos 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanathinaikos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panathinaikos 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Panathinaikosavg 81¢	$3.7K	$2.3K	+$61.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
HO HomeRunHazard	Panathinaikosavg 80¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$24.88	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
DV dv-pm	Panathinaikosavg 82¢	$943.41	$937.66	-$5.75	40% 17-26 (43)
SN SnakeBall	Panathinaikosavg 81¢	$165.82	$166.84	+$1.02	48% 677-745 (1422)
KL kleomarcus<$100	Panathinaikosavg 81¢	$81	$81	+$0	— 9-0 (9)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Panathinaikosavg 81¢	$25.11	$25.11	+$0	55% 248-199 (447)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Barcelonaavg 19¢	$11.81	$11.5	-$0.31	36% 763-1361 (2124)
tradecraft<$100	Panathinaikosavg 82¢	$6.42	$6.46	+$0.04	26% 250-705 (955)

VeryLucky888

Panathinaikos

Invested

$3,679.6

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$61.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

HomeRunHazard

Panathinaikos

Invested

$1,828.67

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$24.88

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

dv-pm

Panathinaikos

Invested

$943.41

Value

$937.66

PnL

-$5.75

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

SnakeBall

Panathinaikos

Invested

$165.82

Value

$166.84

PnL

+$1.02

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

kleomarcus<$100

Panathinaikos

Invested

$81

Value

$81

PnL

+$0

Record

—

9-0 (9)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Panathinaikos

Invested

$25.11

Value

$25.11

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Barcelona

Invested

$11.81

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$0.31

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

tradecraft<$100

Panathinaikos

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.46

PnL

+$0.04

Record

26%

250-705 (955)

Research grade

AvoidPanathinaikos at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panathinaikos

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Panathinaikos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPanathinaikos 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanathinaikos 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panathinaikos 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panathinaikos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.