Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Olimpia Milano, while the market favors Olympiacos B.C. (80%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Olimpia Milano (25%) · Olimpia Milano at 20¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Olympiacos B.C.80¢Olimpia Milano20¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Olimpia Milano

Consensus Traders

Olimpia Milano 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$164.94

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 20¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOlimpia Milano at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olimpia Milano

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Olympiacos B.C. 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Olympiacos B.C.80%

Olimpia Milano20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olimpia Milano2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares11,451

Combined PnL+$176.54

Olympiacos B.C.6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,559

Combined PnL-$11.59

Olimpia Milano — 25%Olympiacos B.C. — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Olimpia Milanoavg 20¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$170.6	50% 1231-1223 (2454)
VeryLucky888	Olympiacos B.C.avg 79.5¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$18.55	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 70.1¢	$498.46	$508.64	+$10.18	48% 771-834 (1605)
└ Olympiacos B.C. leg	Olympiacos B.C.avg 70.1¢	$331.87	$362.09	+$30.21
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 26.7¢	$166.59	$146.55	-$20.03
UP UpTheBlues	Olympiacos B.C.avg 77¢	$187.88	$186.66	-$1.22	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
MI mishipolis	Olympiacos B.C.avg 71¢	$157.62	$164.23	+$6.62	50% 4509-4451 (8960)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 71.4¢	$42.69	$44.12	+$2.06	86% 5101-864 (5965)
poshposhCTR<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 14¢	$9.89	$15.83	+$5.93	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
TO torta.tech<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 74¢	$14.8	$14.5	-$0.3	63% 8104-4849 (12953)
HRTrading<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 77.6¢	$2.56	$2.36	-$0.2	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$2,274.37

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$170.6

Record

50%

1231-1223 (2454)

VeryLucky888

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$2,500.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$18.55

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$498.46

Value

$508.64

PnL

+$10.18

Record

48%

771-834 (1605)

Both legs:

Olympiacos B.C.$331.8770.1¢+$30.21

Olimpia Milano$166.5926.7¢-$20.03

UpTheBlues

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$187.88

Value

$186.66

PnL

-$1.22

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

mishipolis

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$157.62

Value

$164.23

PnL

+$6.62

Record

50%

4509-4451 (8960)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$42.69

Value

$44.12

PnL

+$2.06

Record

86%

5101-864 (5965)

poshposhCTR<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$9.89

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$5.93

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

torta.tech<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$14.8

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

63%

8104-4849 (12953)

HRTrading<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

AvoidOlimpia Milano at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Olimpia Milano

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Olympiacos B.C. 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olimpia Milano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.