ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Partizan
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Partizan (40%) · Partizan at 54¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Partizan
5
Partizan 40%
1 arb excluded
$12.7K
-$163.91
52.8¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPartizan at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR fraagen | Partizanavg 53¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$90.85 | 48% 52-57 (109) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanneavg 47¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$20.15 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
| └ ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne leg | ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanneavg 47¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$27.1 | |
| └ Partizan leg | Partizanavg 53¢ | $688.62 | $695.57 | +$6.95 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanneavg 47.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$87.06 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
VI viper0310 | Partizanavg 52¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 46% 16-19 (35) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanneavg 47¢ | $598.78 | $611.52 | +$12.74 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanneavg 47¢ | $59.22 | $60.48 | +$1.26 | 54% 2922-2509 (5431) |
Invested
$4,861.85
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$90.85
Record
48%
52-57 (109)
Invested
$3,282.65
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$20.15
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,887.4
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$87.06
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$1,209.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
16-19 (35)
Invested
$598.78
Value
$611.52
PnL
+$12.74
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
Invested
$59.22
Value
$60.48
PnL
+$1.26
Record
54%
2922-2509 (5431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.