Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Partizan

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Zalgiris Kaunas (67%) · Zalgiris Kaunas at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Zalgiris Kaunas84¢Partizan16¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Zalgiris Kaunas

Consensus Traders

Zalgiris Kaunas 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$20.63

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 84¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidZalgiris Kaunas at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zalgiris Kaunas

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Zalgiris Kaunas84%

Partizan16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zalgiris Kaunas6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,475

Combined PnL+$21.54

Partizan3 traders

Total Value$38.24

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$0.91

Zalgiris Kaunas — 67%Partizan — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MY myxi	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 73¢	$729.27	$734.27	+$5	68% 358-171 (529)
MI mishipolis	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 77.4¢	$312.13	$322.69	+$10.56	50% 4508-4445 (8953)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 76.2¢	$245.34	$295.38	+$50.04	48% 765-826 (1591)
└ Partizan leg	Partizanavg 15.6¢	$108.79	$156.58	+$47.79
└ Zalgiris Kaunas leg	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 76.2¢	$136.54	$138.8	+$2.26
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 73¢	$54.75	$59.25	+$4.5	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Partizanavg 28¢	$29.61	$28.02	-$1.59	50% 3803-3762 (7565)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 79¢	$23.5	$25	+$1.5	86% 5097-864 (5961)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 73¢	$12.41	$12.5	+$0.08	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Partizanavg 18¢	$4.5	$6.63	+$2.13	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Partizanavg 27¢	$5.04	$3.59	-$1.45	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
TO torta.tech<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.4	-$0.1	63% 8104-4848 (12952)

myxi

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$729.27

Value

$734.27

PnL

+$5

Record

68%

358-171 (529)

mishipolis

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$312.13

Value

$322.69

PnL

+$10.56

Record

50%

4508-4445 (8953)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$245.34

Value

$295.38

PnL

+$50.04

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

Both legs:

Partizan$108.7915.6¢+$47.79

Zalgiris Kaunas$136.5476.2¢+$2.26

UpTheBlues<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$54.75

Value

$59.25

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$29.61

Value

$28.02

PnL

-$1.59

Record

50%

3803-3762 (7565)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$23.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.5

Record

86%

5097-864 (5961)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$4.5

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$2.13

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$5.04

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

torta.tech<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

8104-4848 (12952)

Research grade

AvoidZalgiris Kaunas at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zalgiris Kaunas

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zalgiris Kaunas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.