Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Anadolu Efes, while the market favors Panathinaikos (57%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Anadolu Efes vs. Panathinaikos

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Anadolu Efes (80%) · Anadolu Efes at 43¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 30

Anadolu Efes43¢Panathinaikos57¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Anadolu Efes

Consensus Traders

Anadolu Efes 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 43¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidAnadolu Efes at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anadolu Efes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Panathinaikos 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anadolu Efes43%

Panathinaikos57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anadolu Efes8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares15,122

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Panathinaikos2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,424

Combined PnL+$133.6

Anadolu Efes — 80%Panathinaikos — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Anadolu Efes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnadolu Efes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAnadolu Efes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Anadolu Efes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Panathinaikosavg 55.9¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$36.67	48% 765-826 (1591)
└ Panathinaikos leg	Panathinaikosavg 55.9¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$655.4
└ Anadolu Efes leg	Anadolu Efesavg 45¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$618.73
TO torta.techCTR	Anadolu Efesavg 45¢	$5.5K	$3.9K	$-1.6K	63% 8104-4848 (12952)
MA madkkee	Panathinaikosavg 64¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$133.32	66% 1033-527 (1560)
UP UpTheBlues	Panathinaikosavg 68¢	$741.94	$742.22	+$0.28	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Anadolu Efesavg 32¢	$395.03	$395.03	-$0	51% 851-816 (1667)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Anadolu Efesavg 39.1¢	$379.57	$310.37	-$69.2	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Anadolu Efesavg 30¢	$134.55	$143.3	+$8.75	50% 3803-3762 (7565)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Panathinaikosavg 54.9¢	$216.76	$129.69	+$40.93	50% 4508-4445 (8953)
└ Panathinaikos leg	Panathinaikosavg 54.9¢	$58.78	$72.77	+$32.14
└ Anadolu Efes leg	Anadolu Efesavg 27.1¢	$48.14	$56.92	+$8.78
HRTradingARB<$100	Panathinaikosavg 63.1¢	$129.13	$129.68	+$0.55	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
└ Panathinaikos leg	Panathinaikosavg 63.1¢	$95.15	$102.51	+$7.36
└ Anadolu Efes leg	Anadolu Efesavg 40¢	$33.98	$27.17	-$6.81
poshposhCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 31.3¢	$37.86	$38.73	+$0.88	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 30.6¢	$29.36	$29.8	+$0.16	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 30¢	$7.5	$8	+$0.5	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 36¢	$9	$8	-$1	86% 5097-864 (5961)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Panathinaikos

Invested

$5,174.32

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$36.67

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

Both legs:

Panathinaikos$3,033.0955.9¢+$655.4

Anadolu Efes$2,141.2345¢-$618.73

torta.techCTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$5,512.63

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

63%

8104-4848 (12952)

madkkee

Panathinaikos

Invested

$2,133.08

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$133.32

Record

66%

1033-527 (1560)

UpTheBlues

Panathinaikos

Invested

$741.94

Value

$742.22

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$395.03

Value

$395.03

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

851-816 (1667)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$379.57

Value

$310.37

PnL

-$69.2

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$134.55

Value

$143.3

PnL

+$8.75

Record

50%

3803-3762 (7565)

mishipolisARB<$100

Panathinaikos

Invested

$216.76

Value

$129.69

PnL

+$40.93

Record

50%

4508-4445 (8953)

Both legs:

Panathinaikos$58.7854.9¢+$32.14

Anadolu Efes$48.1427.1¢+$8.78

HRTradingARB<$100

Panathinaikos

Invested

$129.13

Value

$129.68

PnL

+$0.55

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Both legs:

Panathinaikos$95.1563.1¢+$7.36

Anadolu Efes$33.9840¢-$6.81

poshposhCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$37.86

Value

$38.73

PnL

+$0.88

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$29.36

Value

$29.8

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

86%

5097-864 (5961)

Research grade

AvoidAnadolu Efes at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Anadolu Efes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Panathinaikos 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Anadolu Efes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnadolu Efes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAnadolu Efes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Anadolu Efes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anadolu Efes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.