BC Dubai vs. Paris Basketball
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold BC Dubai (80%) · BC Dubai at 78¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
BC Dubai
5
BC Dubai 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$111.2
79.7¢ → 77.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBC Dubai at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | BC Dubaiavg 79.5¢ | $3.1K | $2.5K | -$58.96 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
KL kleomarcus | BC Dubaiavg 81¢ | $502.2 | $533.2 | +$31 | 63% 1646-987 (2633) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | BC Dubaiavg 78¢ | $319.49 | $336.06 | +$16.57 | 59% 44247-30614 (74861) |
| └ BC Dubai leg | BC Dubaiavg 78¢ | $177.84 | $176.7 | -$1.14 | |
| └ Paris Basketball leg | Paris Basketballavg 20¢ | $141.65 | $159.36 | +$17.71 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Paris Basketballavg 20¢ | $301.57 | $218.38 | -$83.2 | 54% 16738-14040 (30778) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | BC Dubaiavg 79¢ | $19.74 | $19.63 | -$0.12 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | BC Dubaiavg 78¢ | $12.09 | $12.17 | +$0.08 | 50% 11938-12086 (24024) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,056.76
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$58.96
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Invested
$502.2
Value
$533.2
PnL
+$31
Record
63%
1646-987 (2633)
Invested
$319.49
Value
$336.06
PnL
+$16.57
Record
59%
44247-30614 (74861)
Both legs:
Invested
$301.57
Value
$218.38
PnL
-$83.2
Record
54%
16738-14040 (30778)
Invested
$19.74
Value
$19.63
PnL
-$0.12
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
11938-12086 (24024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.