Virtus Bologna vs. Zalgiris Kaunas
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Virtus Bologna (67%) · Virtus Bologna at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Virtus Bologna
3
Virtus Bologna 67%
$1.1K
$8.72
51¢ → 52¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidVirtus Bologna at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Virtus Bolognaavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$10.31 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Virtus Bolognaavg 52¢ | $27.83 | $29.9 | -$1.19 | 58% 28121-20725 (48846) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Zalgiris Kaunasavg 55.8¢ | $3.07 | $3.41 | -$0.4 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.