Virtus Bologna vs. Besiktas

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Virtus Bologna (50%) · Virtus Bologna at 79¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 30

Virtus Bologna79¢Besiktas21¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Virtus Bologna

Consensus Traders

Virtus Bologna 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$589.19

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 78.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidVirtus Bologna at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virtus Bologna

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Virtus Bologna79%

Besiktas22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virtus Bologna4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,745

Combined PnL+$239.34

Besiktas4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,545

Combined PnL+$349.86

Virtus Bologna — 50%Besiktas — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Virtus Bolognaavg 64.9¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$279.72	63% 8104-4849 (12953)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Besiktasavg 34.6¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$332.64	54% 17123-14335 (31458)
VeryLucky888	Virtus Bolognaavg 65¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$45.98	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Besiktasavg 36.1¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$437.96	48% 771-834 (1605)
└ Besiktas leg	Besiktasavg 36.1¢	$1.3K	$769.9	-$493.3
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 59.3¢	$175.15	$230.49	+$55.34
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Besiktasavg 34.9¢	$90.38	$96.94	+$6.56	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 61.3¢	$49.14	$54.71	+$5.56	86% 5101-864 (5965)
poshposhCTR<$100	Besiktasavg 36¢	$36.43	$40.71	+$4.28	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Besiktasavg 37¢	$27.75	$34.13	+$6.38	54% 2976-2554 (5530)
MI mishipolis<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 68¢	$2.23	$2.26	+$0.03	50% 4509-4451 (8960)

torta.tech

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$2,405.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$279.72

Record

63%

8104-4849 (12953)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Besiktas

Invested

$1,329.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$332.64

Record

54%

17123-14335 (31458)

VeryLucky888

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$1,716.55

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$45.98

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$1,438.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$437.96

Record

48%

771-834 (1605)

Both legs:

Besiktas$1,263.236.1¢-$493.3

Virtus Bologna$175.1559.3¢+$55.34

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$90.38

Value

$96.94

PnL

+$6.56

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$49.14

Value

$54.71

PnL

+$5.56

Record

86%

5101-864 (5965)

poshposhCTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$36.43

Value

$40.71

PnL

+$4.28

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$27.75

Value

$34.13

PnL

+$6.38

Record

54%

2976-2554 (5530)

mishipolis<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

4509-4451 (8960)

Research grade

AvoidVirtus Bologna at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Virtus Bologna

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virtus Bologna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.