Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Besiktas, while the market favors Olympiacos B.C. (59%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Besiktas vs. Olympiacos B.C.

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Besiktas (43%) · Besiktas at 41¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 28

Besiktas41¢Olympiacos B.C.59¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Besiktas

Consensus Traders

Besiktas 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

-$207.03

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 41¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBesiktas at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Besiktas

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Olympiacos B.C. 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Besiktas41%

Olympiacos B.C.59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Besiktas6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares17,672

Combined PnL+$168.05

Olympiacos B.C.8 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares11,848

Combined PnL-$375.07

Besiktas — 43%Olympiacos B.C. — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Shimi1234CTR	Besiktasavg 44.7¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$24.65	38% 103-165 (268)
HO HomeRunHazard	Olympiacos B.C.avg 54.8¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	-$409.16	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Besiktasavg 37.4¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$200.16	49% 556-578 (1134)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 58¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$73.1	50% 32772-32330 (65102)
└ Olympiacos B.C. leg	Olympiacos B.C.avg 58¢	$1.1K	$968.17	-$82.04
└ Besiktas leg	Besiktasavg 45¢	$271.81	$280.76	+$8.95
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Olympiacos B.C.avg 57.2¢	$1,000	$978.29	-$21.71	64% 114-64 (178)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Olympiacos B.C.avg 57.4¢	$925.23	$903.22	-$22	53% 335-300 (635)
LU LuckyLoo	Olympiacos B.C.avg 56¢	$385.45	$382.07	-$3.38	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
VeryLucky888	Olympiacos B.C.avg 55¢	$3.1K	$359.96	+$84.05	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 55.9¢	$83.8	$83.25	-$0.55	54% 2922-2510 (5432)
HRTrading<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 60.1¢	$26.86	$24.49	-$2.37	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
poshposhCTR<$100	Besiktasavg 40¢	$19.78	$12.61	-$7.17	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Besiktasavg 40¢	$7.6	$7.51	-$0.1	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
SE sentrio<$100	Olympiacos B.C.avg 55¢	$5.5	$5.55	+$0.05	50% 24859-24561 (49420)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Besiktasavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.45	-$0.05	51% 1282-1219 (2501)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Besiktasavg 35.3¢	$2.95	$2.8	-$0.15	63% 7978-4770 (12748)

Shimi1234CTR

Besiktas

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$24.65

Record

38%

103-165 (268)

HomeRunHazard

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$3,884.15

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$409.16

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Besiktas

Invested

$1,628.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$200.16

Record

49%

556-578 (1134)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$1,322.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$73.1

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

Both legs:

Olympiacos B.C.$1,050.2258¢-$82.04

Besiktas$271.8145¢+$8.95

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$1,000

Value

$978.29

PnL

-$21.71

Record

64%

114-64 (178)

oxe78sh4w98

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$925.23

Value

$903.22

PnL

-$22

Record

53%

335-300 (635)

LuckyLoo

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$385.45

Value

$382.07

PnL

-$3.38

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

VeryLucky888

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$3,103.78

Value

$359.96

PnL

+$84.05

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$83.8

Value

$83.25

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

2922-2510 (5432)

HRTrading<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$26.86

Value

$24.49

PnL

-$2.37

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

poshposhCTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$19.78

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$7.17

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.51

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

sentrio<$100

Olympiacos B.C.

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

24859-24561 (49420)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1282-1219 (2501)

torta.techCTR<$100

Besiktas

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

63%

7978-4770 (12748)

Research grade

AvoidBesiktas at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Besiktas

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Olympiacos B.C. 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Besiktas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.