Kosner Baskonia vs. Real Madrid

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid (63%) · Real Madrid at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27

Kosner Baskonia24¢Real Madrid76¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Real Madrid

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid 63%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$32.52

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 76¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kosner Baskonia24%

Real Madrid76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,785

Combined PnL+$11.9

Kosner Baskonia3 traders

Total Value$863.25

Total Shares3,580

Combined PnL+$20.62

Real Madrid — 63%Kosner Baskonia — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Real Madridavg 76¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$10.62	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kosner Baskoniaavg 23.5¢	$715.44	$745.34	+$29.9	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
LU LuckyLoo	Real Madridavg 76¢	$666.71	$693.03	+$26.32	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
SN SnakeBall	Real Madridavg 76¢	$400.14	$397.51	-$2.63	50% 32583-32122 (64705)
KL kleomarcus	Real Madridavg 79¢	$253.99	$199.38	-$1.27	63% 1646-987 (2633)
WO woshikd99CTR	Kosner Baskoniaavg 23¢	$110.63	$101.01	-$9.62	55% 24-20 (44)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Kosner Baskoniaavg 24¢	$16.56	$16.91	+$0.35	54% 2891-2479 (5370)
HRTrading<$100	Real Madridavg 77¢	$3.08	$3.16	+$0.1	54% 2570-2206 (4776)

UpTheBlues

Real Madrid

Invested

$1,613.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$10.62

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$715.44

Value

$745.34

PnL

+$29.9

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

LuckyLoo

Real Madrid

Invested

$666.71

Value

$693.03

PnL

+$26.32

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

SnakeBall

Real Madrid

Invested

$400.14

Value

$397.51

PnL

-$2.63

Record

50%

32583-32122 (64705)

kleomarcus

Real Madrid

Invested

$253.99

Value

$199.38

PnL

-$1.27

Record

63%

1646-987 (2633)

woshikd99CTR

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$110.63

Value

$101.01

PnL

-$9.62

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$16.56

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

2891-2479 (5370)

HRTrading<$100

Real Madrid

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 76%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.