Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketball
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Maccabi Tel Aviv (50%) · Maccabi Tel Aviv at 65¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Maccabi Tel Aviv
6
Maccabi Tel Aviv 50%
5 arb excluded
$6.0K
-$147.55
49.7¢ → 65¢
+31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMaccabi Tel Aviv at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Maccabi Tel Aviv. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Paris Basketballavg 43.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$108.87 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
| └ Paris Basketball leg | Paris Basketballavg 43.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$348.95 | |
| └ Maccabi Tel Aviv leg | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 50¢ | $687.91 | $928 | +$240.08 | |
JU Justluck9 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 47¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$164 | 41% 91-131 (222) |
TO torta.tech | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 55¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | +$26.63 | 63% 8086-4818 (12904) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 60.8¢ | $566.76 | $407.41 | -$78.6 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
| └ Maccabi Tel Aviv leg | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 60.8¢ | $359.6 | $254.17 | -$102.73 | |
| └ Paris Basketball leg | Paris Basketballavg 37.9¢ | $129.11 | $153.24 | +$24.13 | |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Paris Basketballavg 51.4¢ | $349.37 | $256.47 | -$92.9 | 51% 5930-5617 (11547) |
| └ Paris Basketball leg | Paris Basketballavg 51.4¢ | $277.79 | $194.39 | -$83.4 | |
| └ Maccabi Tel Aviv leg | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 73.8¢ | $71.59 | $62.09 | -$9.5 | |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 75¢ | $394.08 | $232.24 | -$19.83 | 50% 4495-4426 (8921) |
| └ Maccabi Tel Aviv leg | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 75¢ | $150 | $133 | -$17 | |
| └ Paris Basketball leg | Paris Basketballavg 33.5¢ | $99.39 | $99.24 | -$2.83 | |
 ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 59.2¢ | $117.74 | $115.99 | -$1.75 | 68% 457-217 (674) |
| └ Maccabi Tel Aviv leg | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 59.2¢ | $73.99 | $79.99 | +$6 | |
| └ Paris Basketball leg | Paris Basketballavg 43.8¢ | $43.75 | $36 | -$7.75 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Paris Basketballavg 52¢ | $47.38 | $49.98 | +$2.6 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Paris Basketballavg 28.6¢ | $37.62 | $42.77 | +$5.15 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 61¢ | $54.9 | $38.7 | -$16.2 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Paris Basketballavg 37.2¢ | $40 | $38.27 | -$1.73 | 67% 23216-11620 (34836) |
Invested
$2,078.45
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$108.87
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,926.96
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$164
Record
41%
91-131 (222)
Invested
$1,320.55
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$26.63
Record
63%
8086-4818 (12904)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$566.76
Value
$407.41
PnL
-$78.6
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
Both legs:
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$349.37
Value
$256.47
PnL
-$92.9
Record
51%
5930-5617 (11547)
Both legs:
Invested
$394.08
Value
$232.24
PnL
-$19.83
Record
50%
4495-4426 (8921)
Both legs:
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100Invested
$117.74
Value
$115.99
PnL
-$1.75
Record
68%
457-217 (674)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$47.38
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$2.6
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$37.62
Value
$42.77
PnL
+$5.15
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
Invested
$54.9
Value
$38.7
PnL
-$16.2
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
Invested
$40
Value
$38.27
PnL
-$1.73
Record
67%
23216-11620 (34836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Justluck9
Maccabi Tel Aviv — $1.8K
torta.tech
Maccabi Tel Aviv — $1.0K
VeryLucky888
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tradecraft
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mishipolis
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ARTEM-DZYUBA
ARBArbitrage — excluded
HRTrading
CTRParis Basketball — $49.98
poshposh
CTRParis Basketball — $42.77
LeLynxMalynx
Maccabi Tel Aviv — $38.7