Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hapoel Tel Aviv (20%) · Hapoel Tel Aviv at 66¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5
Hapoel Tel Aviv 20%
$32.0K
$-6.2K
Research grade
AvoidHapoel Tel Aviv at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Hapoel Tel Aviv. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Hapoel Tel Avivavg 88.9¢ | $33.5K | $19.0K | $-14.5K | 59% 17-12 (29) |
 yabanciCTR | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 11¢ | $4.4K | $12.6K | +$8.3K | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 33¢ | $258.72 | $266.56 | +$7.84 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 34¢ | $74.7 | $74.7 | -$0 | 45% 267-323 (590) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Maccabi Tel Avivavg 23¢ | $11.16 | $13.73 | +$2.57 | 62% 1325-798 (2123) |
Invested
$33,500
Value
$19.0K
PnL
$-14.5K
Record
59%
17-12 (29)
yabanciCTRInvested
$4,358.2
Value
$12.6K
PnL
+$8.3K
Record
—
Invested
$258.72
Value
$266.56
PnL
+$7.84
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$74.7
Value
$74.7
PnL
-$0
Record
45%
267-323 (590)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$13.73
PnL
+$2.57
Record
62%
1325-798 (2123)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.