Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Anadolu Efes

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hapoel Tel Aviv (60%) · Hapoel Tel Aviv at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Hapoel Tel Aviv>99¢Anadolu Efes<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Consensus Traders

Hapoel Tel Aviv 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

-$23.52

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 99.5¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHapoel Tel Aviv at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hapoel Tel Aviv

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hapoel Tel Aviv99%

Anadolu Efes1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hapoel Tel Aviv6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares9,087

Combined PnL+$6.64

Anadolu Efes4 traders

Total Value$707.52

Total Shares4,234

Combined PnL-$30.16

Hapoel Tel Aviv — 60%Anadolu Efes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA madkkee	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 83¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$38.88	66% 1015-521 (1536)
VeryLucky888	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 70.6¢	$3.3K	$2.6K	+$10.53	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 74.9¢	$660.54	$766.04	+$105.5	49% 557-579 (1136)
└ Hapoel Tel Aviv leg	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 74.9¢	$489.02	$597.65	+$108.64
└ Anadolu Efes leg	Anadolu Efesavg 8.7¢	$171.52	$168.38	-$3.13
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Anadolu Efesavg 17¢	$630.96	$593.84	-$37.12	59% 30098-20824 (50922)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 69¢	$528.85	$540.28	+$11.43	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
acm24	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 79¢	$533.9	$476.45	-$57.44	68% 928-438 (1366)
TO torta.techCTR	Anadolu Efesavg 20¢	$94.4	$106.2	+$11.8	63% 7978-4771 (12749)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 70¢	$11.9	$11.99	+$0.08	54% 2922-2511 (5433)
poshposh<$100	Hapoel Tel Avivavg 96.7¢	$8.44	$11.59	+$3.16	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 30¢	$7.23	$7.11	-$0.12	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Anadolu Efesavg 19.6¢	$5.09	$0.36	-$4.73	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

madkkee

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$3,227.03

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$38.88

Record

66%

1015-521 (1536)

VeryLucky888

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$3,285.68

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$10.53

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$660.54

Value

$766.04

PnL

+$105.5

Record

49%

557-579 (1136)

Both legs:

Hapoel Tel Aviv$489.0274.9¢+$108.64

Anadolu Efes$171.528.7¢-$3.13

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$630.96

Value

$593.84

PnL

-$37.12

Record

59%

30098-20824 (50922)

HomeRunHazard

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$528.85

Value

$540.28

PnL

+$11.43

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

acm24

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$533.9

Value

$476.45

PnL

-$57.44

Record

68%

928-438 (1366)

torta.techCTR

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$94.4

Value

$106.2

PnL

+$11.8

Record

63%

7978-4771 (12749)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$11.9

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2922-2511 (5433)

poshposh<$100

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Invested

$8.44

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$3.16

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$0.12

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Anadolu Efes

Invested

$5.09

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$4.73

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

AvoidHapoel Tel Aviv at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Hapoel Tel Aviv

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hapoel Tel Aviv wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.