Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (72%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down on October 29?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 28¢ · $663 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Down
6
Down 83%
$663.1
-$198.62
41.2¢ → 28.5¢
-31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidDown at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Up 72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Upavg 59.2¢ | $434.82 | $235.58 | +$106.94 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 40.5¢ | $454.57 | $193.59 | -$260.98 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $25 | $75.84 | -$12.34 | 55% 49290-39543 (88833) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $84.66 | $72.28 | -$12.37 | 55% 50079-40706 (90785) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $86.18 | $70.74 | -$15.45 | 55% 48029-39638 (87667) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.4¢ | $19.49 | $15.07 | -$4.43 | 59% 852-595 (1447) |
Invested
$434.82
Value
$235.58
PnL
+$106.94
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$454.57
Value
$193.59
PnL
-$260.98
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
Invested
$25
Value
$75.84
PnL
-$12.34
Record
55%
49290-39543 (88833)
Invested
$84.66
Value
$72.28
PnL
-$12.37
Record
55%
50079-40706 (90785)
Invested
$86.18
Value
$70.74
PnL
-$15.45
Record
55%
48029-39638 (87667)
Invested
$19.49
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$4.43
Record
59%
852-595 (1447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.