Ethereum Up or Down on October 28?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 53¢ · $231 held · ends Oct 28

Up47¢Down53¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$230.82

Combined PnL

-$1.45

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 53¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up47%

Down53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$66.79

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$3.82

Down4 traders

Total Value$164.03

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$2.37

Up — 20%Down — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$70.6	$66.79	-$3.82	59% 1006-698 (1704)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$49.25	$53.55	+$4.31	59% 847-591 (1438)
Relaccsed<$100	Downavg 50¢	$50	$46	-$4	56% 1192-948 (2140)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 50¢	$35.4	$34.55	+$0.9	55% 49901-40526 (90427)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 50¢	$29.77	$29.93	+$1.16	56% 49079-39304 (88383)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100

Invested

$70.6

Value

$66.79

PnL

-$3.82

Record

59%

1006-698 (1704)

gobblewobble<$100

Down

Invested

$49.25

Value

$53.55

PnL

+$4.31

Record

59%

847-591 (1438)

Relaccsed<$100

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$46

PnL

-$4

Record

56%

1192-948 (2140)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$35.4

Value

$34.55

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

49901-40526 (90427)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$29.77

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$1.16

Record

56%

49079-39304 (88383)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.