Ethereum Up or Down on November 15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 87¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$263.52

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 86.5¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares10,523

Combined PnL+$148.27

Up3 traders

Total Value$46.95

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$115.25

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUp 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Downavg 59.6¢	$5.7K	$7.4K	+$1.9K	69% 206-92 (298)
TO Tokor	Downavg 78.5¢	$818.93	$738.64	-$22.52	52% 135-126 (261)
EA Eager47259	Downavg 75.9¢	$3.1K	$159.19	$-1.7K	48% 204-219 (423)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Upavg 28.3¢	$79.7	$105.5	+$25.8	49% 427-437 (864)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$27.3	$67.58	+$40.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$52.4	$37.93	-$14.48
KI kingofcoinflips	Downavg 79¢	$106.74	$105.39	-$1.35	62% 16-10 (26)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 18.8¢	$333.31	$16.01	+$20.98	51% 4683-4502 (9185)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 18.6¢	$104.77	$15.6	+$58.02	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 18.4¢	$99.08	$15.33	+$36.25	51% 1429-1393 (2822)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 33¢	$3.08	$7.29	+$4.2	46% 2830-3355 (6185)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Down

Invested

$5,725.3

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

Tokor

Down

Invested

$818.93

Value

$738.64

PnL

-$22.52

Record

52%

135-126 (261)

Eager47259

Down

Invested

$3,058.77

Value

$159.19

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$79.7

Value

$105.5

PnL

+$25.8

Record

49%

427-437 (864)

Both legs:

Down$27.332.1¢+$40.28

Up$52.428.3¢-$14.48

kingofcoinflips

Down

Invested

$106.74

Value

$105.39

PnL

-$1.35

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$333.31

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$20.98

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

almachCTR

Invested

$104.77

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$58.02

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$99.08

Value

$15.33

PnL

+$36.25

Record

51%

1429-1393 (2822)

suntori<$100

Down

Invested

$3.08

Value

$7.29

PnL

+$4.2

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUp 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.3%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.