Ethereum Up or Down on November 14?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (29%) · Down at 79¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 14

Up21¢Down79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 79¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up21%

Down79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares10,934

Combined PnL-$649.88

Up5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares11,160

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Down — 29%Up — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$10.3K	$4.9K	+$5.1K	69% 174-79 (253)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$2.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.2¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$2.9K
EA Eager47259	Downavg 84.9¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$398.23	50% 182-185 (367)
Sxc123.sxc	Downavg 84.8¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$251.65	— 3-1 (4)
TO TokorCTR	Upavg 72¢	$4.9K	$1.2K	$-2.6K	53% 125-112 (237)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 33.3¢	$2.0K	$886.58	$-1.1K	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 31.4¢	$205.5	$24	+$10.27	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 36.5¢	$222.3	$24	+$1.69	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 35.6¢	$220.63	$24	+$2.61	50% 1219-1216 (2435)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$10,335.62

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

Both legs:

Down$2,317.7456.3¢+$2.2K

Up$1,150.8714.2¢+$2.9K

Eager47259

Down

Invested

$5,279.94

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$398.23

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

Sxc123.sxc

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$251.65

Record

—

3-1 (4)

TokorCTR

Invested

$4,854.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

suntoriCTR

Invested

$2,035.5

Value

$886.58

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$205.5

Value

$24

PnL

+$10.27

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$222.3

Value

$24

PnL

+$1.69

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

almachCTR

Invested

$220.63

Value

$24

PnL

+$2.61

Record

50%

1219-1216 (2435)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDown 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.1%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.