Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (56%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ethereum Up or Down on November 13?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (43%) · Down at 44¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Down
7
Down 43%
1 arb excluded
$8.5K
-$468.38
51.1¢ → 44¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Up 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $3.6K | $3.9K | +$286.14 | 70% 137-59 (196) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$240 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$46.14 | |
 Sxc123.sxcCTR | Downavg 51.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.4K | -$413.34 | — 2-1 (3) |
EA Eager47259 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$29.56 | 49% 132-138 (270) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Upavg 47.6¢ | $639.31 | $631.09 | -$8.23 | — 6-7 (13) |
TO Tokor | Upavg 49.7¢ | $203.9 | $192.7 | -$11.2 | 53% 102-91 (193) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $88.11 | $39 | -$1.11 | 50% 4166-4088 (8254) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $52.55 | $1.52 | -$1.54 | 49% 924-967 (1891) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $90.4 | $0.92 | -$3.41 | 49% 924-973 (1897) |
Invested
$3,614.94
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$286.14
Record
70%
137-59 (196)
Both legs:
Sxc123.sxcCTRInvested
$2,766.44
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$413.34
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$1,362.41
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$29.56
Record
49%
132-138 (270)
Invested
$639.31
Value
$631.09
PnL
-$8.23
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Invested
$203.9
Value
$192.7
PnL
-$11.2
Record
53%
102-91 (193)
Invested
$88.11
Value
$39
PnL
-$1.11
Record
50%
4166-4088 (8254)
Invested
$52.55
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$1.54
Record
49%
924-967 (1891)
Invested
$90.4
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$3.41
Record
49%
924-973 (1897)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.