Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$1.1K
-$61.43
40.8¢ → 38.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 42¢ | $701.69 | $635.45 | -$66.24 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
EA Eager47259 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $324.31 | $314.38 | -$9.93 | 40% 51-77 (128) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $55 | $60 | +$5 | 46% 567-675 (1242) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $55 | $60 | +$5 | 50% 3793-3812 (7605) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.8¢ | $55.01 | $59.76 | +$4.75 | 45% 571-696 (1267) |
Invested
$701.69
Value
$635.45
PnL
-$66.24
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
Invested
$324.31
Value
$314.38
PnL
-$9.93
Record
40%
51-77 (128)
Invested
$55
Value
$60
PnL
+$5
Record
46%
567-675 (1242)
Invested
$55
Value
$60
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
3793-3812 (7605)
Invested
$55.01
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$4.75
Record
45%
571-696 (1267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.